TL;DR

Autism diagnoses in Australia have risen significantly, but the evidence shows this is not simply caused by the NDIS. Increased awareness, broader diagnostic criteria, and better screening tools are driving higher identification. While the NDIS may influence diagnosis timing, it has also filled major service gaps. With new reforms such as Thriving Kids and the National Autism Strategy, families want certainty: timely, clear, and equitable access to supports.

Executive Summary

Australia has seen a steady increase in autism diagnoses. This trend aligns with global patterns and has been influenced by broader diagnostic criteria (DSM-5), improved screening, and rising awareness. The NDIS—supporting over 40% of its participants with autism—has provided life-changing services but has also shaped diagnosis behaviour, since families often seek formal assessments to access funding.

The federal government’s response has been twofold:
– Thriving Kids (2025) – foundational supports outside the NDIS for children with mild needs.
– National Autism Strategy (2025) – $42m to improve pathways, reduce gaps, and ensure inclusion.

The challenge is balancing scheme sustainability while maintaining genuine support for autistic Australians and their families.

Key Facts (Verified)

• Autism diagnoses in Australia have steadily risen, reflecting global trends.
• Roughly 40% of NDIS participants have autism, making it the largest diagnostic group.
• Broader criteria (DSM-5, since 2013) and improved tools contribute to higher prevalence figures.
• Families often seek a diagnosis to access NDIS funding, influencing identification patterns.
• Critics cite risks of “diagnostic creep,” but most diagnoses follow rigorous, multidisciplinary processes.
• NDIS Review (2023) recommended foundational supports to ease pressure on the Scheme.
• Government targets NDIS growth moderation: 10.8% in 2025, aiming for ~5–6% annually.
• Thriving Kids rollout planned for July 2026 (pending consultation).
• A new $2.8m epidemiological study will clarify true autism prevalence in Australia.

What’s Driving the Autism Surge?

• Awareness: Parents, teachers, and professionals are more attuned to early signs.
• Broader criteria: DSM-5 expanded the autism spectrum, increasing eligibility.
• Better screening: Newer tools detect autism more reliably in children with subtle signs.
• Social shifts: Less stigma + stronger advocacy → more families pursue diagnosis.

The NDIS’s Role: Incentive or Lifeline?

• The NDIS requires formal diagnosis for funding. This may encourage families to seek earlier assessments.
• Evidence shows rates were rising before NDIS launched.
• Children on the NDIS access double the supports compared to peers outside the Scheme.
• Families report improved outcomes through therapies, respite, and community inclusion.

Policy Context: Thriving Kids & Autism Strategy

• Thriving Kids (2025): Aimed at diverting children with milder needs to school- and community-based supports. Target rollout: July 2026.
• National Autism Strategy (2025): $42m for better diagnostic pathways, inclusion, and reduced wait times.
• NDIS sustainability: The Scheme remains demand-driven, but growth moderation is a policy priority.

Sector Responses

• Advocates: Welcome focus on foundational supports, but warn against reproducing pre-NDIS service gaps.
• Families: Call for clarity and equity—simple access, regardless of postcode.
• Providers: Preparing for tighter regulation, especially around registration and quality standards.

Practical Takeaways for Families

• Keep an “evidence pack”: School reports, therapy notes, and GP/paediatric assessments.
• Ask schools about referrals: Stay informed as Thriving Kids pathways are designed.
• Check eligibility regularly: Some children will remain eligible for NDIS; others will move to foundational supports.
• Don’t delay early intervention: Outcomes improve with timely therapy, no matter the funding stream.

Practical Takeaways for Providers

• Plan for dual pathways: Guide families between NDIS and mainstream supports.
• Collaborate with schools: Foundational supports will be mainstream-delivered.
• Stay audit-ready: Anticipate stronger registration rules and compliance checks.

Careable’s Commitment

• At Careable, we’ll support families through these changes with clarity, compassion, and practical guidance. We’ll engage in consultation processes and share updates as they become available—so no family is left behind.

Careable — Compassion is at the heart of our care.
For support or advice: 1300 DECIDE • cx@careable.com.au

Frequently Asked Questions (Confirmed)

• Q: Is the NDIS causing more autism diagnoses?
  A: No. Rising prevalence is linked to awareness, broader criteria, and better screening. The NDIS influences diagnosis behaviour but does not cause autism.
• Q: Will my child lose support under Thriving Kids?
  A: Thriving Kids is designed to provide foundational supports. The government’s aim is to ensure no child goes without help.
• Q: When does Thriving Kids start?
  A: Target operational date is July 2026, following consultation.
• Q: Is the NDIS being replaced?
  A: No. The NDIS remains the primary system for people with permanent and significant disability.

Source

Autism CRC (2020), NDIS Review (2023), National Autism Strategy (2025), Federal Government announcements (2025).

Need help? Talk to Careable: 1300 DECIDE • cx@careable.com.au • careable.com.au